Fantasy football insights with Watson for Week 3

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Updated: September 20, 2019

3:10 PM ET

For those who are looking for a tool to concentrate various web opinions into one location in order to help make roster moves, IBM offers Watson’s Insights as an unsupervised, quantitative supplement to the more in-depth, personalized analysis that you would normally expect from an ESPN analyst.

IBM Insights uses Watson AI to analyze thousands of fantasy articles, blogs, websites and podcasts to provide data that assists with fantasy football decisions. Watson outputs an estimated scoring range for each player and projects the chances that a player will exceed the upside estimate (e.g., “boom”) or fall short of the low-end estimate (e.g., “bust”) in any given week.

The following article points out a few notable insights from Watson for Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season, as of early Friday afternoon.


Quarterback decisions

While quarterbacks can provide some of the best fantasy value in a given week, it can be difficult to decide beforehand which one to start. This is especially true this season, when almost a quarter of the NFL is starting a different quarterback for Week 3 compared to their Week 1 starter. IBM Insights provides information that can help make these decisions easier for fantasy managers.

Fantasy football flex rankings for Week 3

  • Daily fantasy football: Best buys for Week 3

  • Vegas fantasy football edge: Will McLaurin keep rolling?

  • The following analysis was performed on the 30 starting quarterbacks who are expected to play in Week 3 (excluding Thursday’s QBs).

    Projections higher than rank

    Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

    • Weekly rank: 129, 16th among QBs

    • High projection: 25.7 fantasy points

    • Low projection: 10.0 fantasy points

    • Boom chance: 0.08

    • Bust chance: 0.2

    Allen faces a Bengals defense that allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season and was torched by Jimmy Garoppolo last week to the tune of 297 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Allen has been very consistent this season, with just over 250 passing yards, a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown in each game so far. This consistency is reflected in his low boom percentage but high overall expected value.

    Watson’s insight: Allen was identified by Insight as a lower-ranked quarterback who could produce QB1 numbers this week against a weak pass defense.

    Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

    • Weekly rank: 161, 19th among QBs

    • High projection: 23.6 fantasy points

    • Low projection: 16.8 fantasy points

    • Boom chance: 0.25

    • Bust chance: 0.20

    Winston has had a slow statistical start to the season, but he did lead his team to a win last Thursday night with a positive performance. This week, he faces a Giants defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks through the first two weeks of the season.

    Watson’s insight: Winston is a high-risk, high-reward play whom Insight identifies with a good chance to produce QB1 stats this week against a weak Giants defense.

    Most likely to go boom/Least likely to bust

    Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

    • Weekly rank: 211, 23rd among QBs

    • High projection: 20.8 fantasy points

    • Low projection: 9.1 fantasy points

    • Boom chance: 0.25

    • Bust chance: 0.08

    Dalton’s Bengals have lost their first two games, but he has gone over 300 yards with two touchdowns in each game. While the Bills are a strong defensive unit, the offense that the Bengals run and the skill positions surrounding Dalton give him a good chance to put up numbers with a high floor most weeks.